In the first half of 2024, prices have decreased due to oversupply and weaker demand, with key producers in South Korea and China playing a significant role in the market. South Korea’s production remains strong, with several major chemical producers maintaining steady output levels. China, as one of the largest global producers of Methacrylic Acid, continues to have a substantial market share, with its industry contributing significantly to the overall supply. The combination of high production levels in these regions, along with subdued demand from downstream sectors like paints, coatings, and fuel additives, has led to an oversupply, putting downward pressure on Methacrylic Acid prices.
In Q1 of 2024, Methacrylic Acid prices showed a bearish trend compared to Q3 2023, primarily driven by an oversupply of the product and weaker demand across key regions. In China, prices fell by -8.8%, reflecting continued high production levels and reduced consumption from downstream sectors such as adhesive, coatings, automotive. Similarly, in South Korea, prices decreased by 7.9%, as demand remained subdued due to slower economic growth and weaker industrial activity. The overall market was further pressured by stable feedstock costs, particularly Acetone, which alleviated production cost pressures but did not stimulate demand. This combination of excess supply and lackluster demand led to a price decline in both China and South Korea, which also affected importing countries like USA India, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico, where lower demand for Methacrylic Acid from end-user industries further exacerbated the price drop.
In Q2 2024, Methacrylic Acid prices showed a staggering recovery in China, rising by 18.2%. This recovery was driven by a rebound in demand from downstream sectors such as adhesive, electronic, automotive and industrial solvents, as economic activity picked up and production resumed after seasonal slowdowns. Additionally, some tightening in supply due to production adjustments helped to support prices. In South Korea, prices were also moving upwards, as the market found challenging between supply and demand. Despite ongoing economic challenges, it was fueled by steady demand from key industries, along with more favorable feedstock pricing for Acetone. The combination of these factors helped to increase in prices after the bearish trend in Q1, leading to higher increases in China and a firming of prices in South Korea.
In Q3 of 2024, Methacrylic Acid prices surged in China by 15.8% and in Japan by 15.8%, driven by supply constraints, maintenance shutdowns, and increased demand across industries like automotive and chemicals. This surge significantly impacted importing nations such as USA, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil and India. All these countries, which rely heavily on imports for Methacrylic Acid, faced higher procurement costs, leading to increased production expenses for their downstream industries, including adhesive, rubber, coatings, automotive and adhesives. As a result, manufacturers in these nations experienced tighter margins, potentially passing on higher costs to consumers, which could slow economic growth in affected sectors.
In Q4 2024 Methacrylic Acid prices are forecasted to experience a downward trend in South Korea, driven by declining demand in sectors such as electronics, rubber, and adhesives. While supply chain adjustments may stabilize pricing, geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility. Overall, prices are expected to decrease steadily, remaining sensitive to market fluctuations. In contrast, prices in China are projected to continue declining as local demand wanes due to seasonal shifts, further impacting pricing trends.