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Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast

⟳ Weekly Update
|
Historical Data Since 2015
|
Forecast for 2026

ethylene Markets Covered:

usUnited States
deGermany
cnChina
inIndia
saSaudi Arabia
jpJapan
krKorea

Global ethylene Price Trend, Analysis and Forecast​

At the beginning of Q1 2025, the market underwent a slight correction. Prices of Ethylene FOB Busan dropped to USD 848/MT, showing a 1.09% decrease from Q4. The drop was mainly due to slower restocking activity after the year-end surge and reduced buying from some export destinations. Additionally, production remained stable across South Korean crackers, keeping the supply side well-covered. Despite the dip, the market remained healthy with consistent downstream activity and no major logistical disruptions. 

EthyleneTrend Analysis: Q2 2025

At the beginning of Q1 2025, the market underwent a slight correction. Prices of Ethylene FOB Busan dropped to USD 848/MT, showing a 1.09% decrease from Q4. The drop was mainly due to slower restocking activity after the year-end surge and reduced buying from some export destinations. Additionally, production remained stable across South Korean crackers, keeping the supply side well-covered. Despite the dip, the market remained healthy with consistent downstream activity and no major logistical disruptions. 

Ethylene Trend Analysis: Q4 2024

In the final quarter of 2024, the Ethylene market showed slight signs of recovery. Prices of Ethylene FOB Busan rose to USD 857.67/MT, registering a 1.97% increase. This gain was supported by stronger seasonal demand in the packaging industry ahead of the holidays. Several buyers replenished stocks, and a few planned maintenance activities in Northeast Asia tightened spot availability. Moreover, slight increases in upstream crude oil and naphtha prices added to the cost pressure, leading to firmer pricing for Ethylene. 

Q3 2024 remained largely steady in terms of pricing. Prices of Ethylene FOB Busan averaged at USD 841.11/MT, a minor dip of 0.07% compared to Q2. The market remained mostly balanced, with both supply and demand moving in sync. While domestic demand for film-grade polyethylene remained steady, export volumes did not show significant growth. The lack of major turnarounds or supply disruptions meant that the market stayed calm, and prices moved within a narrow range throughout the quarter. 

In Q2 2024, the market reversed its trend, and prices of Ethylene FOB Busan declined to USD 841.67/MT, a 5.72% drop from Q1. The fall came because of weaker-than-expected buying interest from China and Southeast Asia, where downstream operations slowed down due to high inventory levels. On the supply side, most plants were operating steadily, which added to the regional availability and exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, a drop in naphtha costs — Ethylene’s main feedstock — further pushed prices down. 

In the first quarter of 2024, the Ethylene market in South Korea witnessed a modest improvement. Prices of Ethylene FOB Busan reached USD 892.78/MT, marking a 4.62% increase from the previous quarter. This upward movement was driven by stable demand from the packaging and plastics industries, especially polyethylene manufacturing. Many downstream sectors showed signs of revival after a quiet year-end in 2023. Additionally, unplanned maintenance at some regional crackers reduced availability in the market, which supported price gains during the quarter. 

ethylene Parameters Covered: 

  •  Crude Oil
  •  Natural Gas
  •  Naphtha
  •  South Korea
  • USA
  • Japan
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Polyethylene (HDPE, LDPE)
  • Ethylene Oxide (antifreeze, detergents, and sterilizing agents)
  • polystyrene plastics
  • Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM)
  • Alpha-Olefins
  • Solvents & Other Chemicals
  • China
  • Argentina
  • Qatar
  • Turkey
  • Netherlands
  • Germany
  • Belgium

Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Ethylene prices

  • Russia-Ukraine War & Energy Crisis (2022–2023): The war in Ukraine triggered a major energy crisis in Europe, driving up natural gas and naphtha prices—both key feedstocks for Ethylene production. Many European crackers faced shutdowns or scaled-back operations due to high energy costs, tightening Ethylene supply across the region. This imbalance contributed to price spikes and redirected trade flows toward Asia and the U.S. 
  • Post-COVID Demand Surge (2021–2022): As global economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns, demand for consumer goods, construction materials, and packaging rebounded rapidly. Ethylene, a building block for polyethylene and other plastics, saw strong demand growth. However, supply was still recovering, especially in regions hit by earlier shutdowns, pushing prices higher across global markets. 
  • U.S. Gulf Coast Hurricane Disruptions (2020 & 2021): Multiple hurricanes—including Laura (2020) and Ida (2021)—hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, home to a large concentration of Ethylene crackers. These storms caused widespread plant shutdowns, port delays, and power outages, significantly reducing output. As a result, domestic Ethylene supply tightened, and prices surged both regionally and globally due to reduced exports. 
  • 2020 Oil Price Crash & Cracker Cutbacks: In early 2020, oil prices collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a brief price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The resulting economic slowdown led to reduced demand for plastics, causing many crackers—especially those using naphtha—to cut production. Ethylene prices initially fell but rebounded quickly as demand recovered later in the year, creating significant volatility. 
  • U.S.–China Trade Tariff Dispute (April 2025): In April 2025, the U.S. and China imposed steep tariffs—up to 125%—on a wide range of goods, including petrochemicals such as Ethylene and its derivatives. This disrupted global trade flows, increased costs for key downstream industries like plastics and packaging, and led to uncertainty in global supply chains. The result was price volatility, especially in Asia and North America. 

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Historically, several events have caused significant fluctuations in Ethylene prices

  • Russia-Ukraine War & Energy Crisis (2022–2023): The war in Ukraine triggered a major energy crisis in Europe, driving up natural gas and naphtha prices—both key feedstocks for Ethylene production. Many European crackers faced shutdowns or scaled-back operations due to high energy costs, tightening Ethylene supply across the region. This imbalance contributed to price spikes and redirected trade flows toward Asia and the U.S. 
  • Post-COVID Demand Surge (2021–2022): As global economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns, demand for consumer goods, construction materials, and packaging rebounded rapidly. Ethylene, a building block for polyethylene and other plastics, saw strong demand growth. However, supply was still recovering, especially in regions hit by earlier shutdowns, pushing prices higher across global markets. 
  • U.S. Gulf Coast Hurricane Disruptions (2020 & 2021): Multiple hurricanes—including Laura (2020) and Ida (2021)—hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, home to a large concentration of Ethylene crackers. These storms caused widespread plant shutdowns, port delays, and power outages, significantly reducing output. As a result, domestic Ethylene supply tightened, and prices surged both regionally and globally due to reduced exports. 
  • 2020 Oil Price Crash & Cracker Cutbacks: In early 2020, oil prices collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a brief price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The resulting economic slowdown led to reduced demand for plastics, causing many crackers—especially those using naphtha—to cut production. Ethylene prices initially fell but rebounded quickly as demand recovered later in the year, creating significant volatility. 
  • U.S.–China Trade Tariff Dispute (April 2025): In April 2025, the U.S. and China imposed steep tariffs—up to 125%—on a wide range of goods, including petrochemicals such as Ethylene and its derivatives. This disrupted global trade flows, increased costs for key downstream industries like plastics and packaging, and led to uncertainty in global supply chains. The result was price volatility, especially in Asia and North America. 

Why PriceWatch?

PriceWatch is your trusted resource for tracking global ethylene price trends. Our platform delivers real-time data and expert analysis, offering deep insights into the key factors driving price fluctuations in the ethylene market. By monitoring critical events such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts, PriceWatch keeps you fully informed of market dynamics.

In addition, PriceWatch provides detailed forecasts and updates on production capacities, enabling you to anticipate market changes and make well-informed decisions. With PriceWatch, you gain a competitive edge in understanding all the elements that influence ethylene prices worldwide. Stay ahead of the curve with PriceWatch’s reliable, accurate, and timely ethylene market data.

Track PriceWatch's ethylene price assessment on a weekly basis since 2015 onwards, along with short-term forecasts, and get access to the detailed report in a downloadable format.

Data Collection and Sources​

  • Real-Time Market Data: PriceWatch gathers real-time pricing data from a wide range of sources, including global commodity exchanges, industry reports, and proprietary databases. This ensures our assessments reflect the latest market conditions for Ethylene. 
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Our team collects insights directly from key market players, including Ethylene producers, suppliers, traders, and end-users across major production hubs. This local intelligence is vital to understanding the unique dynamics of specific Ethylene markets. 
  • Supply Chain Monitoring: We monitor the entire Ethylene supply chain, from feedstock sourcing and production to transportation and distribution. This includes tracking crude oil and naphtha prices, production plant operations, storage levels, and shipping logistics to provide a comprehensive view of supply dynamics. 

Event Tracking and Impact Analysis​

  • Geopolitical Tensions: PriceWatch keeps a close eye on global geopolitical developments, such as conflicts, sanctions, and trade disputes, which can significantly impact Ethylene prices. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its disruption to European gas markets have led to price volatility worldwide. 
  • Natural Disasters and Climate Events: We assess the impact of weather-related events, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and extreme cold spells, on Ethylene production and export facilities. Events like hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf Coast or freezing conditions in key exporting nations can lead to short-term supply disruptions. 
  • Economic Shifts: PriceWatch analyses macroeconomic trends, including global economic growth, inflation, and sector-specific demand (e.g., power generation, industrial use). These factors are crucial in predicting Ethylene demand and resulting price movements. 

Production Capacity and Supply Analysis

  • Current Production Monitoring: We maintain a detailed global database of Ethylene production facilities, tracking their operational status, maintenance activities, and output levels. This helps us assess the current supply of Ethylene at any given time. 
  • Future Capacity Projections: Our research includes forecasts of future Ethylene production capacity, considering new liquefaction plants, expansions, and advancements in technology. This aids in predicting future supply trends and potential impacts on price stability. 

Demand Forecasting

  • Sectoral Demand Analysis: PriceWatch offers a deep dive into demand trends across key sectors, such as power generation, industrial applications, and residential heating. We monitor year-on-year demand growth and predict future consumption patterns based on market indicators. 
  • Global Demand Dynamics: Our analysis looks at regional variations in demand and how they influence global Ethylene prices. This includes evaluating shifts in energy policies, changes in environmental regulations, and regional supply and demand imbalances. 

Pricing Model Development

  • Dynamic Pricing Models: PriceWatch uses advanced econometric models to forecast Ethylene prices, integrating real-time data, historical trends, and projected market conditions. Our models are constantly updated to improve accuracy and reliability. 
  • Scenario Analysis: We run scenario-based analyses to examine possible future market conditions. This includes evaluating best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, helping clients prepare for various market developments. 

Reporting and Client Support

  • Comprehensive Reports: Clients receive detailed reports featuring current Ethylene price assessments, future price forecasts, and in-depth analysis of market drivers. These reports are designed to provide actionable insights and clear recommendations. 
  • Ongoing Support: PriceWatch offers continuous updates and personalized client support, ensuring you always have the latest information to make informed decisions. Our experts are available for discussions on specific market trends and to offer tailored advice. 

This research methodology ensures that PriceWatch delivers accurate, timely, and actionable Ethylene pricing assessments, helping clients stay ahead of market trends and make well-informed business decisions. 

Ethylene price provided by PriceWatch is a base price and excludes VAT/Taxes, discounts, or offers. The information herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge as of the date indicated and is provided solely for the convenience of our customers as a reference for ethylene. PriceWatch disclaims any warranties or representations regarding the accuracy of results derived from this information. It is the sole responsibility of the user to assess the suitability of the product for their specific application. This document does not constitute an endorsement to use the product in violation of any applicable patent rights.

The price of Ethylene is influenced by several key factors, including the cost of feedstocks such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethane, which vary by production region. Market dynamics such as supply-demand balance, plant operating rates, and unplanned shutdowns can significantly impact price fluctuations. Additionally, global economic trends, energy prices, geopolitical developments, trade regulations, and shipping costs play critical roles. Since Ethylene is a cornerstone chemical used in producing polyethylene and other derivatives, changes in downstream industries—such as packaging, automotive, and construction—also affect pricing trends.

Global supply and demand shifts are directly reflected in Ethylene pricing. Rising demand from the plastics, construction, and consumer goods sectors can push prices upward, especially during times of limited supply or high production costs. Conversely, periods of oversupply—due to new capacity additions or weakened demand—can result in lower prices. Factors like plant maintenance, outages, and inventory levels further contribute to volatility. To manage costs effectively, procurement professionals must monitor production forecasts, industry growth, and economic indicators that influence global consumption patterns.

Ethylene pricing varies significantly by region, driven by differences in feedstock economics, production methods, infrastructure, and local demand. For instance, North America often benefits from lower ethylene production costs due to abundant shale gas (ethane-based production), whereas regions like Asia may rely more on naphtha, making them more sensitive to crude oil price changes. Europe, with older infrastructure, may experience tighter margins and more frequent supply constraints. Procurement teams should evaluate regional cost structures, logistics considerations, and trade dynamics to optimize sourcing strategies, ensure supply continuity, and minimize exposure to regional pricing volatility.

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